Immigration is now a key Holyrood election issue for almost a third of Scots voters.
An Ipsos poll for STV found 30 per cent of people said it would be ‘very important’ in deciding which party they vote for next May.
In the previous Ipsos poll in June, immigration hadn’t even been a top ten concern.
While in May, a separate survey found it was rated a top issue by 16 per cent of Scots.
And on the eve of the 2021 Holyrood election, just 1 per cent of voters cited it as a factor.
The growing importance of immigration in the election mirrors the rise of Reform UK.
The Ipsos poll found the NHS and health was the top priority for electors, with 57 per cent of respondents naming it, followed by 41 per cent saying and the cost of living.
Immigration was ahead of the economy and social – both cited by 25 per cent of respondents – and independence on 22 per cent.
Protestors took part in demonstration outside a Hotel in Falkirk last September, which housed asylum seekers
Emily Gray, managing director of Ipsos in Scotland, said: ‘One dramatic shift in recent months has been the increased importance of immigration to Scotland’s voters.
‘This issue looks set to feature in the Holyrood election campaigns, and with one in five saying Reform UK is the party they trust most on immigration, the party’s messaging on this issue is clearly resonating with a significant minority of Scots.’
Immigration was the top concern of Reform supporters, with 83 per cent saying it was key to their vote, with only Tory voters also making it a top five issue, with 38 per cent citing it.
The NHS was the top concern for SNP, Labour and Tory, with the SNP seen as best placed to manage the heath service.
Mr Swinney was the least unpopular Scottish leader, with a -14 per cent rating, compared to -28 per cent for Labour’s Anas Sarwar and -36 for Tory Russell Findlay.
Keir Starmer had a disastrous rating of -63 per cent, with Kemi Badenoch on -40 and Mr Farage on -37.
The poll put the SNP far ahead of its rivals, with 35 per cent support on the constituency vote (up 1 point on June) and 28 per cent (+2) on the list, although both figures were around 12 points down on its 2021 election result.
Reform support was 18 per cent (+4) in constituencies and 17 per cent (+1) on the list.
Scottish Labour saw its support slump 7 points in constituencies to 16 per cent and by 4 points on the list to 18.
The Conservatives were at 11 per cent (+1) in seats and 12 per cent (+2) on the list, while the Greens were unchanged at 9 per cent in seats and up 2 to 17 per cent on the list.
The Liberal Democrats were unchanged at 9 per cent in seats and down 1 point at 7 per cent on the list.
The Scottish Election Study calculator projected the figures would see the SNP win 62 seats, Labour 18, Reform 17, Greens 16, Tories 10 and LibDems 6.
The SNP forecast is three short of a majority, which John Swinney has set as his target, arguing it would lead to a second referendum despite UK Labour rejecting the idea.
The poll found 52 per cent of Scots would vote Yes and 48 per cent No to separation.
Ms Gray added: ‘These new results show the SNP holding onto their core voters more successfully than other parties.
‘Reform UK’s vote share in Scotland has continued to improve, although there has been a rise in public dissatisfaction with Nigel Farage’s performance as party leader.
‘Meanwhile, Scottish Labour are experiencing continued decline in their vote share, likely to relate to the UK Labour Government’s unpopularity.’
Lord Malcolm Offord, the former Tory peer who defected to Reform at the weekend, said: ‘This poll proves all the momentum is with Reform in Scotland. Labour is in reverse and the SNP is stuck in neutral.
‘The voters want a new narrative to power forward a successful Scotland.’
Mr Farage also told the Spectator he expected to make big strides in Scotland in May, where he predicted the Tories would be ‘eliminated’.
A Scottish Tory spokesman said: ‘This poll is further evidence that a vote for Reform will only help the SNP stay in power and waste five more years pushing for another damaging and divisive independence referendum.’
SNP depute leader Keith Brown said his party was ‘well ahead’ while ‘support for Labour nosedives, leaving them fighting it out with Nigel Farage for second place’.
He said: ‘It’s no wonder given the total failure of this UK Labour government.’
Ipsos surveyed 1,061 adults between November 27 and December 3. Ends
