In 1066, the English King Harold faced two threats to his power.
He saw off a challenger in the north, defeating an Viking army at Stamford Bridge. But then he was then beaten by a challenger from the south, falling at Hastings and allowing William the Conqueror to take the throne and alter the course of British history.
Fast forward 960 years and Sir Keir Starmer has seen off a challenger from the North after blocking Andy Burnham from making a return to Westminster that was widely seen as a precursor to a leadership bid.
But he may still have to muster his weary troops to see off a challenger from the south in the shape of Wes Streeting.
The Health Secretary and Ilford North MP has made no secret of his desire to one day be Prime Minister and is thought to just be waiting for his moment to strike.
In many ways stopping Burnham, who garnered many headlines for his noisy attempt to return to the Commons, was always going to be the easier victory for the Prime Minister as he tries to keep hold of power.
Having quit parliament in a huff in 2017 after being beaten to the Labour leadership by Ed Miliband and then, more embarrassingly, by Jeremy Corbyn, Burnham needed a new seat to enact his march on No10.
Stopping him getting that seat was logistically simple – if politically hard – at the weekend, as the Starmerite-dominated officer committee of Labour’s NEC ruled he could not try to stand in the Gorton and Denton by-election.
Streeting has, in contrast, been quiet, more measured in his criticism and willing to bide his time. He is already an MP – though with one of the smallest majorities in the Commons – so blocking him is a harder task.
He also has more support within the Parliamentary Labour Party. Allies suggest he would have the backing of around 200 MPs if he did run to replace Sir Keir, double that of Burnham.
In many ways stopping Burnham, who garnered many headlines for his noisy attempt to return to the Commons, was always going to be the easier victory for the Prime Minister as he tries to keep hold of power.
But he may still have to muster his weary troops to see off a challenger from the south in the shape of Wes Streeting.
Et tu, Angela? The former ex-deputy prime minister has kept a very low profile since she was forced to quit last year amid a row over the tax she paid when buying a holiday home.
The crunch point is May 7. That is the day a raft of elections take place across the UK, including English councils, the Scottish Parliament and the Welsh Assembly. It could also be the day the Gorton by-election takes place.
A worst-case scenario for Sir Keir is Labour finishing third in Scotland behind the SNP and Reform, losing control of the Senedd for the first time ever, losing Gorton to Reform or the Greens, and losing a slew of council seats.
That would be the impetus for a full challenge from Streeting and, perhaps from Angela Rayner.
The former ex-deputy prime minister has kept a very low profile since she was forced to quit last year amid a row over the tax she paid when buying a holiday home.
The so-called Red Queen was expected to regain her post as well as a plum Cabinet job as rewards for backing Mr Burnham.
Sources said Ms Rayner had put aside her own ambitions to replace Sir Keir Starmer in favour of the Manchester mayor.
But a much-hyped public endorsement at the weekend did not emerge – leading to speculation that her ambitions remained focused on winning power herself.
With Burnham out of the way she is the natural challenger to West Streeting that MPs from the north and the soft left wing of the party could get behind.
Under the Labour Party’s rulebook, if there is no current vacancy for party leader, nominations may be sought by potential challengers.
A worst-case scenario for Sir Keir is Labour finishing third in Scotland behind the SNP and Reform, losing control of the Senedd for the first time ever, losing Gorton to Reform or the Greens, and losing a slew of council seats.
Those seeking to replace Sir Keir must be nominated by 20 per cent of Labour MPs, after the threshold was raised from 10 per cent in 2021.
The party currently has 404 MPs in the House of Commons, so this means challengers will need the support of 81 MPs to force a leadership election.
Sir Keir himself will not be required to seek nominations to enter a leadership election, should he be challenged and he wishes to fight on.
As the sitting party leader, his name will automatically go on the ballot paper.
Those seeking to challenge Sir Keir will also need the support of 5 per cent of Constituency Labour Parties (CLPs) or the backing of three affiliates, two of which have to be trade unions.
If they have the required support, challengers will then need to write to Labour’s general secretary Hollie Ridley to accept their nomination.
An independent scrutineer will then approve a timetable for a leadership ballot.
