Saturday’s announcement by Andy Burnham was the culmination of months of increasingly unsubtle manoeuvring by the Manchester Mayor.
But when the time came to make his move, he hesitated: did he have enough support among Labour MPs to justify the gamble of quitting the mayoralty, facing down the Prime Minister and trying to beat Nigel Farage?
From late on Friday evening into Saturday morning, Labour MPs were bombarded with calls by members of Team Burnham to assess the scale of his support in the Commons.
The decision had been made that if the number of MPs prepared to back a future leadership bid by him did not run into triple figures, it was not worth the risk.
On Saturday night, a Labour MP, who is a supporter of Mr Burnham, said: ‘The figure was well over 100, so we decided it was game on.’
An MP needs to win the support of a minimum of 81 Labour MPs to stand for the party leadership.
As The Mail on Sunday revealed last month, Mr Burnham struck a deal with Ms Rayner before Christmas, under which she was promised her old job back as Deputy Prime Minister if she lent her support to a victorious campaign.
Sources say Angela Rayner’s public backing on Friday was key to building a sense of momentum for Mr Burnham among the Parliamentary Party.
Saturday’s announcement by Andy Burnham (pictured) that he try to make a return to the Commons was the culmination of months of increasingly unsubtle manoeuvring
Starmer and Burnham pictured together during a meeting with English regional mayors at Downing Street in 2024
Nigel Farage (pictured) has boasted that Reform UK would emerge victorious in a by-election in Gorton and Denton
Informed sources also say that Ed Miliband – who on Saturday said he hoped the Gorton and Denton Labour Party would have ‘the option’ of selecting Mr Burnham as a candidate – would be Chancellor in a Burnham government.
But many perils lie ahead for Mr Burnham before he can consider a tilt at the leadership. First, he must overcome the apparent resolve of Sir Keir Starmer’s allies to stop him getting into the Commons.
Members of Labour’s ruling National Executive Committee (NEC) will meet to decide whether to block his candidacy – based on party rules that dictate that sitting Labour Mayors must get permission if they want to resign and stand in a parliamentary election.
And resign as Manchester Mayor Mr Burnham must do if he is to win the by-election, as the law states that Mayors who are also police and crime commissioners cannot be MPs.
The NEC, still majority-controlled by allies of the PM, will also review whether Labour should run the risk of a second by-election to replace Mr Burnham as Mayor amid fears it would let Reform capture the prized post.
Apart from the party’s own campaigning expenses, a Greater Manchester mayoral contest wouldn’t come cheap for the taxpayer. The bill for the last one left the Greater Manchester Combined Authority with a bill of around £4.7million.
If allowed to stand, there is also the little matter of Mr Burnham actually winning the by-election at a time of huge unpopularity for Labour generally. Reform is strong in the North-West – hence Mr Farage’s boast that his party would emerge victorious.
Private polling by Mr Burnham indicates that, if a by-election were held tomorrow, he would win: the ethnic make-up of the area is not Reform’s natural heartland.
Reform sources concede that point. But Mr Farage has vowed to ‘throw everything’ at the contest, and Westminster is littered with the bodies of political opponents who thought they had his measure.
Mancunian Zack Polanski is also said to be considering launching a campaign for the seat
Serial by-election challenger George Galloway of the Workers Party of Britain is set to run
Mr Burnham could also face a challenge from the Greens’ Zack Polanski, which would split the vote on the Left, as well as potentially from Left-wing serial by-election challenger George Galloway.
If Mr Burnham does win the seat, he will have to summon the will to challenge Sir Keir – despite having declared yesterday that he wants to back the Government, ‘not undermine it’.
Unless there is a party-wide decision to have a coronation for the ‘King of the North’, he will almost certainly face a challenge from Wes Streeting, the Health Secretary, and also perhaps Shabana Mahmood, the Home Secretary.
Mr Burnham will also have to justify the duplicity he has employed during the past months of plotting.
When The Mail on Sunday revealed last month that he was planning to cut a deal to stand in Andrew Gwynne’s seat, he wrote on social media: ‘Quite a lot of rubbish in the papers today. Reminds me why I left Westminster in the first place!’
As a non-denial denial, it was a classic of its time. Mr Burnham did not actually say he was referring to our story. What he very conspicuously failed to write was: ‘I am not hoping to return to the Commons and then topple the Prime Minister.’ Because he was.
Labour MPs who claim to know Mr Burnham’s thinking expect him to make initial protestations of loyalty, followed – if he makes it into the Commons – by a leadership challenge in July. That would be in the wake of expected disastrous local election results that he could blame on Sir Keir.
